Solar beats coal in a winter first

For the first time, solar generation has exceeded coal as the dominant electricity generation source in the national power grid in winter.

Another solar record fell on 19 and 21 August, with NEM-wide solar generation exceeding coal generation for for first time.

The emergence of solar as the dominant source in winter was first observed on Friday 19th August, when it overtook coal for 35 minutes as the biggest fuel source. On Sunday 21st, the period lasted for three hours and 20 minutes.

At its peak, solar was producing 11,487 MW of power, while coal was producing 9784 MW.

The relative balance of solar vs coal is contingent on overall aggregate demand across the grid.

In springtime there tends to be lower aggregate demand since we are not using air conditioning yet, and the use of electric heating subsides.

Grid-wide generation is always matched to demand, so with more available sunshine in spring, and relatively low aggregate demand, it becomes more possible for solar to represent the majority share of overall generation. We've already seen solar exceed coal in the springtime months of September and October last year.

What's new this year is that this same dynamic has played out before the end of August, while we're still in winter.

More than 3,000 MW of additional small-scale solar capacity was added to the grid in Australia last year, according to the Clean Energy Regulator, and the growth forecast for solar, accelerated by increasing energy pricing, is very strong.

We expect that solar overtaking coal as the dominant generation source will become common, not only in late winter, but also into the summer months.